Here are my predictions for the countries in the Asia-Pacific region.
Last year, 20 of these 30 countries sent films but I thought it was a fairly weak group....Mongolia's "If Only I Could Hibernate" was probably the best one.....and it would be on the bubble to make my 15-film shortlist...
This year, we could see the first-ever submission from Papua New Guinea, which announced the formation of an Oscar committee earlier this summer.
AFGHANISTAN- “Sima’s Song” Sadly, the arts are no longer a
priority in Afghanistan, which continues to struggle under medieval Taliban
rule. Having said that, Afghan filmmakers continue to make movies and I hope that they will return to the competition soon, after sending some wonderfully original and thought-provoking films from 2003-2019. Roya Sadat is
Afghanistan’s best-known female film director and she represented the country
at the Oscars in 2017. "Sima's Song" (Tokyo), shot in Greece but set in Afghanistan is a new drama about two young female students living in Kabul in
1978…when the country was at its most modern. It certainly should be eligible
somehow even though Sadat is now reportedly based in Seattle. There’s also
“Writing Hawa”, a documentary about a budding female entrepreneur, and her life
before and after the 2021 Taliban takeover. It has won a number of awards, and
also has a female Afghan director who is currently living in exile.
AUSTRALIA- “The Wolves Always Come at Night” Between
2012-2023, Screen Australia managed to find a Foreign Language candidate to
represent English-speaking Australia every year except once during the 2020 pandemic.
These films were in a diverse range of European, Middle Eastern, Asian,
Indigenous Australian and Pacific languages. I saw them all and they were mostly very, good. Last year, the Aussies failed to find a
suitable candidate but this year they’ll probably send “The Wolves Always Come
at Night” (Toronto), a Mongolian docudrama (looks like the same style as
“Weeping Camel”) about a nomadic couple forced to leave the countryside and
move to the Mongolian capital due to the effects of climate change.
BANGLADESH- “Saba” This year, Bangladesh has one acclaimed movie
that played at both Toronto and Busan - “Saba”
about a devoted daughter taking care of her severely disabled mother for 25 years of her life. The daughter has to deal with the painfully difficult (but quite universal)
issues surrounding end-of-life care for her mother. This is undoubtedly the
best-reviewed Bangladeshi film of the year, though I don’t think it’s been
released in Bangladesh yet. Mostofa Sarwar Farooki, the only Bangladeshi
director who has been picked three times, has a new movie....namely, three-hour satire “840”....but reviews have been very mixed. So "Saba"’s main competition will be
“A Tale of Two Sisters”, a film about two sisters trying to make ends meet during
Bangladesh’s brutal war of independence in 1971. Bangladesh had two other films
at major film festivals - ”Beyond the Mast” (Moscow), a melodrama about
tensions among sailors aboard a small ship, and “Shikolbaha” (Silence of the
Seashell) (Shanghai), a village drama about woman with an unexpected pregnancy.
Less likely: action thriller “Borbaad”, the biggest box-office hit of 2025, family
drama “Vhoyal” and thriller “NeelChokro”
BHUTAN- “I, The Song” Bhutan has sent three films
since 1999 and will probably send their fourth, “I, the Song”, this year. The
film premiered at a major festival (Tallinn Black Nights) and later won Best
Picture at the Bhutan Film Awards. It’s a Hitchcockian thriller about a schoolteacher
shocked by the existence of a viral video of a woman who looks exactly like
her, doing pornographic things. The film begins to destroy her life. It’s definitely
in.
CAMBODIA- “Mannequin Wedding” This year, most of Cambodia's films have been ghostly horror films. Some of these are supposed to be fairly entertaining
but Cambodia typically sends more serious fare to the Oscars. In the past ten years,
they’ve sent nine films....six were serious dramas and documentaries that premiered
at major international film festivals. The other three were modest but
earnestly made local melodramas. No horror movies. But Cambodia doesn't have much to choose from so
I’m predicting they send “Mannequin Wedding”, a hybrid horror film-slash-documentary
about a 2021 nightclub fire. It’s reportedly the highest-grossing Cambodian
film of all time. If that’s not serious enough, they could send rural
documentary “Until the Orchid Blooms”....or nothing at all. Dark horse: "Becoming Human" (by the same director as "Orchid") looks wonderful. It's a supernatural drama about a ghost watching over an old cinema scheduled for demolition. It will almost certainly represent Cambodia at the Oscars next year. But maybe they will rush it into cinemas to qualify this year so they'll have something to send? I still think it's their 2026 submission.
CHINA- “Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants” China
produces many beautiful films….but the Chinese Academy hasn’t sent one to the
Oscars in years. In the past ten years, they’ve sent four nationalist films of
diverse genres (sports, sci-fi, action, and documentary), two historical films by famous directors, two mainstream
comedies, a blockbuster kiddie anime film, and an odd Buddhist drama. Eight were fairly big box-office hits;
only “Xuanyang” (the Buddhist one) was a failure. So "success" is important to the Chinese Academy. So far, this year’s two big box-office
successes were “Ne Zha 2”, a 2 ½ hour sequel to their 2019 cartoon submission
and by far the highest-grossing Chinese film of all time; and “Detective
Chinatown 2000”, a comedy sequel starring Chow Yun-fat. Neither of these would
be a smart pick, but you really never know with China. Most people are predicting they will send “Ne Zha 2” and this anime sequel actually has surprisingly good
reviews….but I think they’ll give another director a chance. In the past, China
used to send every Zhang Yimou and Chen Kaige film (from 2004-2012, they were
sent six times) but they don’t do that anymore. Since 2012, no director has
been sent more than once. This could help famous directors like Feng Xiaogang (he’s been picked twice but not since 2013) for
women-in-prison drama “We Girls”…or it could benefit Wuershan for “Creation of
the Gods II”, a sword-and-sorcery fantasy epic, or famed HK action director Tsui
Hark, now 75, (he’s never been picked by
either China or Hong Kong) for “Legends of the Condor Heroes: The Gallants”,
about the Mongol Invasions of China. These last two were also major hits at the
box office. And if China goes the comedy-drama route (they picked “Nice View” a
few years ago) it could be “Her Story”, about the challenges of single motherhood. And this summer, there are two
patriotic anti-Japanese films coming out – “731” about Japanese medical experimentation
camps during WWII, and “Dongji Rescue”, ironically about the Lisbon Maru incident
during WWII.....which was also the subject of their disqualified documentary from last
year. Of course, China has many arthouse films that could be better choices, especially Berlinale Best Director winner “Living the Land” but also “The Botanist” or “Girls on
Wire”. I’m sure to get this one wrong….but honoring Tsui and picking “Legends
of the Condor Heroes” looks and sounds like what China usually sends - a great-looking,
box-office hit with middling reviews and a pre-cooked U.S. streaming release. I
have “731”, “Ne Zha 2” and “Dongji Rescue” as the most
likely alternates. Waiting in the wings: Chen Kaige's coming-of-age drama "Flowers from the Ashes" still hasn't been released.
FIJI- “Bati” Tiny Fiji doesn’t make many movies but
they did enter the Oscar race once in 2005 with a film in the Rotuman language. This
year, they could return! Boxing drama “Bati” is a wholly Fijian film that will
premiere on August 21st and – based on the trailer - looks to be roughly 50% in Fijian and 50% in English. Good luck, Fiji!
HONG KONG- “The Last Dance” Last year’s HK Oscar
submission “Twilight of the Warriors” won Best Picture and Best Director at the
Hong Kong Film Awards but three of the other four nominees are eligible this
year – (1)- “The Last Dance” (Best Screenplay, Actress, Supporting Actor + two minor
awards) is a drama about a wedding planner who becomes a funeral planner….and the
highest-grossing HK film of all time, (2)- “Papa” (Best Actor, Supporting
Actress), about a man with survivor guilt following a brutal murder, and (3)- “The Way We Talk”, about Hong Kong’s deaf community
with shades of “CODA”. 2025 has been a much quieter year with the only other possible
contenders “Montages of a Modern Motherhood”, which opened the Hong Kong Film
Festival, “Luz” (Sundance), co-starring Isabelle Huppert, and “My First of
May”, a family drama starring Aaron Kwok as the patriarch of a family that
falls apart due to the crippling illness of their young daughter. I think “The
Last Dance” has more buzz, though “Papa” and “My First of May” will be tough
competition.
INDIA- “Homebound” I do have a life and simply don't have time to research India's 1900 feature films in 20 different languages.....especially since the Film Federation of India (FFI) seems to just pick films at random anyway. The FFI admittedly has a really hard job....but even so, they're not very good at it. I'm predicting "Homebound", a Hindi-language buddy movie about two aspiring police officers that seems to have very good reviews.
INDONESIA- “Gowok: Javanese Kamasutra” For now, Indonesia
has a four-way race between three previously submitted directors –Hanung
Bramantyo (2014), Garin Nugroho (1998/2019) and Mouly Surya (2018), plus Yandy
Laurens, whose last film was the big winner of the 2024 Indonesian Citra
Awards. I’m predicting Bramantyo’s erotic historical drama “Gowok: Javanese
Kamasutra” (Rotterdam), about an upper-class family in the 1960s who hire a
sort of courtesan to educate their son about his upcoming marital responsibilities. The
Indonesian Academy can be daring (check out the provocative “Memories of My Body” which caused stupid people to protest) and "Gowok" looks aesthetically beautiful. I have Laurens’ “A Brother
and 7 Siblings”, a sort of Indonesian “Party of Five” about a young man who
finds himself father to seven nieces and nephews after an untimely death, in
second place. Laurens won Best Picture at the Indonesian Film Awards last year
(for a different film) and they may feel he is owed. It hasn’t gotten any
festival play but neither did “Missing Home” a few years ago. Close behind are historical
drama “This City is a Battlefield” by Mouly Surya (she directed “Marlina the
Murderer”) which is about a freedom fighter who struggles with ordinary life
after Indonesia achieves independence, and Garin Nugroho’s “Samsara”, a stylish
B+W supernatural drama set in 1930s Bali. Reviews for “This City” aren’t as
good as Surya’s previous film, and I fear “Samsara” may be completely forgotten…..but
they are very respected directors in Indonesia and definitely have a chance. Rounding
out the Top 5: “Crocodile Tears” (Toronto/Tallinn), a drama about an
overbearing mother that’s played at quite a few festivals.
JAPAN- “Kokuho” As usual, Japan has a lot of options. Alphabetically, I see their Top 5 as - (1)- “Kokuho” (Cannes), a huge 3-hour kabuki-yakuza epic (co-starring
Ken Watanabe) set during 50 years of post-war Japan....it arguably has the best
reviews of the five, (2)- “A Pale View of the Hills” (Cannes), a historical
drama about a Japanese widow told in two
timelines (like Iceland’s “Touch”) in Japan and the UK, based on a Kazuo Ishiguro novel (3)- “Scarlet”
(Venice), the most anticipated anime film of the year, set to premiere at
Venice and an early favorite to contend for the Oscar for Best Animated Feature....it's about a princess
with magical powers, (4)- “Sham” (Tribeca), a twisty courtroom drama based on a
true-crime story about a teacher trying to drive a student to suicide...and the
latest from Takeshi Miike, and (5)- “Teki Cometh” (Tokyo), a B+W Haneke-esque
drama that won Best Picture at the Tokyo Film Festival and was the Japanese
nominee at the Asian Film Awards (winning Best Director), about an old man who
receives a mysterious message that danger is coming.
In recent years, the Japanese Academy has adhered to an unofficial “share the wealth” policy and doesn’t choose directors multiple times. That's the biggest hurdle for frontrunner “Kokuho” whose director Lee Sang-il was selected way back in 2006. Is that long enough to wait? (This unofficial rule will also hurt Chie Hayakawa who some people are predicting for “Renoir”…but Hayakawa was picked just three years ago so I'm confident she has no chance). I keep going back and forth between “Kokuho”, “Sham” and “Pale View of the Hills”...and now "Scarlet" is gathering buzz for its Venice debut. “Kokuho”’s dazzling costumes and Japanese-ness look like they would represent Japan proudly so that's still my pick. But last year, Japan picked an unheralded film by a respected director who had never been picked before (Kiyoshi Kurosawa)….”Sham” is one of Takeshi Miike’s most mainstream and serious efforts and would probably do well with Oscar voters. The incredibly prolific Miike is 64 years old and has made over 100 films and this would be a nice career honor.....“Pale View” has slightly weaker reviews than the other two but has the Cannes label (so does “Kokuho”) and an old-fashioned Masterpiece Theatre vibe. It’s likely to be one of these three….I’m predicting “Kokuho”….but wouldn’t be at all surprised if they chose one of the other two.
KAZAKHSTAN- “Joqtau” In the past ten years,
Kazakhstan has sent nine films by nine different directors. Three films were about
Soviet Kazakh history and one was about Kazakhstan during the 15th century. Three more were serious social dramas while two were “magical realist” films from international festivals. Notably, they have ignored a lot of acclaimed films and made some rather odd decisions, particularly the
critically lambasted “Life” (which I admittedly never saw) in 2022. The Kazakh Academy likes to highlight films that showcase Kazakh culture (“Bauryna Salu”,
“Golden Throne”) but also Russian aggression against Kazakhstan (“Amanat”, “Ayka”,
“Crying Steppe”), while avoiding films that generate any controversies.
That’s unfortunate because the best-reviewed Kazakh film of the year is “Abel”
(Busan), about how rampant corruption affects the lives of a hard-working rural couple. Lesbian-themed
“Bikechess”, about another controversial topic, won the 2024 Tribeca Film Festival. Neither will be selected.
Kazakhstan’s most prolific director Adilkhan Yerzhanov has two new films this year- a
horror flick (“Cadet”) and an action movie (“Moor”) but they usually ignore him (including one year when they decided to send nothing instead of "Ademoka's Education"). So,
what will they pick? Dreamy drama “Joqtau” (Locarno '24) looks awfully artistic
and abstract, but it has played a lot regionally. Other options: Akan Satayev
has been picked three times and his new horror film “Anel” could be selected,
as could children’s animation “Golden Man” which may check the box for
honoring Kazakh history....or “Longer Than a Day” (Shanghai), a drama about a
rural couple who encounter a Frenchman on the Kazakh steppes.
KOREA- “No Other Choice” As of today, Korea has had a mostly weak film year....which will make it easier than ever for Park Chan-wook's "No Other Choice" to win this. Before Korea announced their list of 19 eligible films last month, I expected "What Does That Nature Say to You?" (Berlin), "Square" (Annecy), "Hear Me" (Busan), and "Love in the Big City" (Toronto) might join Park on the list.....but of those four only "Big City", about a young woman and her gay best friend, actually registered. No one has seen "No Other Choice" but Korea is almost certain to send Park Chan-wook’s dark
revenge comedy that will premiere at Venice later this month. Park Chan-wook is well-known in
Seoul and in Hollywood but has only been submitted to the Oscars once. Even in
a stronger year, he’d be the frontrunner….This year, he’s a lock. What happens if the films bombs? It won't....but the runner-ups are likely anti-Japanese historical drama "Harbin" and mystery-thriller "The Ugly".
Locked: No Other Choice
Dark Horses: Harbin, The Ugly
High-Ranked: Love in the Big City, A Normal Family, Somebody, When This Summer is Over, Yadang: The Snitch
Middle Ranked: About Family, High Five, Mimang, My Daughter is a Zombie, Secret: Untold Melody, Spring Night
Low Ranked: Dark Nuns, Exorcism Chronicles, The Killers, The Old Woman & the Knife, Omniescient Reader
KYRGYZSTAN- “Black Red Yellow” Kyrgyzstan should have
an easy decision this year since “Black Red Yellow” became the first-ever
Kyrgyz film to win a Class-A film festival in Shanghai this year. Add to that the fact that director Aktan Arym Kubat has been selected for all
five feature films that he made in Kyrgyzstan since the country began entering the Oscar competition in 1998…and his films keep getting better and better. So, this
should be a no brainer. “Black Red Yellow” is a village drama that also
showcases the country’s outstanding carpetmaking traditions. In any other year,
human trafficking drama “Deal at the Border” would have had a good chance.
LAOS- “Satu- Year of the Rabbit” Laos has just sent one
film, a really fun horror movie called "Dearest Sister", to the Oscars (in 2017). They probably won’t send
anything this year but UK co-production “Satu- Year of the Rabbit”, a road movie about a
child laborer searching for his long-lost mother, looks great and has played at
a number of festivals. But the fact that
it has a British writer-director and mostly foreign crew (it has Lao producers
and a Lao cast) means maybe it isn't eligible?
MALAYSIA- “Blood Brothers: Dragon’s Embers” Malaysia
is hard to predict because they have absolutely no genre prejudices. Most countries just look at straight dramas but Malaysia has happily sent comedies,
horror films, documentaries and family films….This year, I expect they'll be choosing between mafia crime drama "Blood Brothers" and time-travel fantasy "Reversi", in part because they both have Netflix release deals like last year's submission. "Blood Brothers" seems slightly more likely to me. They could also choose “Magik Rompak”, a new heist movie....horror-drama
“Kulit Wayang” whose director Dain Said directed the first-ever Malaysian
submission or “Finding Ramlee” (Rotterdam), a dramedy about a struggling
actor. Dark horse: One of their
best reviewed films of the year is a kiddie anime film- “Ejen Ali 2”.
MONGOLIA- “Silent City Driver” Last year, “If Only I
Could Hibernate” (Cannes 2023) was one of the best films submitted from Asia
and it was very warmly received by critics. And yet the Mongolian Academy announced that they were not submitting any film at all reportedly because
“Hibernate” did not show the country in a positive light. They had to be
shamed by a social media campaign led by the director into sending it to the Oscars. Like
Kyrgyzstan, Mongolia is a very small filmmaking country that managed to
win a Class-A festival this year, in this case with Buddhist thriller “Silent City Driver”,
which won Tallinn Black Nights. But Tallinn Black Nights is known as a very "genre" festival so “Silent City Driver”, about an ex-con hearse driver seeking
revenge, could lose out to “Mongol”, which looks like the kind of cultural film that Mongolia
usually sends to the Oscars. Set circa 1900, "Mongol" is an epic costume drama about a
peasant, his feudal lord, and the lord’s daughter with whom he has fallen in
love. The writer, director and lead actor is Amarsaikhan Baljinnyam who was
chosen to rep Mongolia in 2023. This will be a very, very tight two-way race. I
predict “Silent City” but local politics could mean “Mongol” (which also looks
very good) gets this.
NEPAL- “The World's Happiest Man” Nepal has two strong options, namely Deepak Rauniyar’s “Pooja, Sir”, which premiered at Venice Horizons
2024, and Binod Paudel’s “The World’s Happiest Man”, set in the U.S. state of
Ohio and co-starring two-time Oscar nominee Bruce Dern, who is now 89 years
old. Both directors have been picked once before but Rauniyar is more famous
internationally. But Nepal sometimes just chooses a locally made film that
nobody has ever heard of. The gorgeous “Halkara” starts off slow but was one of the most pleasant surprises on
the Oscar longlist two years ago. “A Journey of Purna Bahadur”, about the life of an
impoverished musician trying to achieve a better future (and co-produced by
Paudel), is reportedly the highest-grossing film in Nepalese history and that could help it outrun the two frontrunners. “Woolen
Sweater” and “Mohar” round out the top five options for Nepal. I think the U.S. connection will help "Happiest Man" win this.
NEW ZEALAND- “Kōkā” The Kiwis had an excellent
candidate last year (“In the Fire of War”, aka Ka Whawhai Tonu) that was probably their best chance ever to make the shortlist. It was certainly eligible but, for some reason, they didn’t send it. It seems that the New Zealand Film Commission has lost interest in this category.
Between 2011-2018, they sent six films. Since then, just one. If they return
this year, I predict it will be “Kōkā”, a spiritual road movie about a (mentally ill?)
Maori elder and a troubled young girl. Based on the trailer, it looks like it’s
50-50 in the English and Maori languages.We'll see!
PAKISTAN- “Ghost School” Of all the regular participants at the International Oscar party, I
probably had the hardest time finding a film that could suitably represent
Pakistan. Although Pakistan has deserved two Oscar nominations in the
past five years (“Circus of Life” and “Joyland”), this has been a lean year. There have been a few well-received movies with lots of local music and
romance…but they don’t look like Oscar contenders. Pakistan did send a
horror-drama (“In Flames”) in 2023 so I was going to predict they send another-
“Deemak”- a slow born thriller about a family who aren’t sure whether the
strange events in their home are supernatural. Reviews are so-so but I though it may be
their best shot. But then another supernatural dramas - "Ghost School" - was announced for Toronto. It's about a young girl trying to uncover the mystery of why her local school has been shuttered. I'm not certain it can get into Pakistani cinemas by September 30....but it looks like a stronger entry than "Deemak".
PAPUA NEW GUINEA- “Plesman 2” Papua New Guinea is one
of two countries (along with Madagascar) that has publicly announced that they plan to send a film for the
first time in 2025….and I’m pretty shocked. PNG doesn't produce a lot of films, both because of a lack of filmmaking expertise, as well as crime and violence…but there has apparently been a lot of talk recently about jump-starting the industry. There was a lot of fanfare in 2024 about
“Black Python”, billed as the country’s first-ever action film. If they really do enter, I think they’ll send “Plesman 2: Rising from the Ashes”, a film being
readied for release in time for the country’s 50th anniversary of
independence in August 2025. It’s a social issues drama (and sequel) about a
man confronting tribal conflict, sorcery and lack of education in his rural
community. Papua New Guinea is one of only four “big” countries (over 2 million
people) in the Asia-Pacific region never to send a film to the Oscars,
alongside the hermetical trio of Burma, North Korea and Turkmenistan.
PHILIPPINES- “Magellan” The Philippines gets a lot of their Oscar submissions from the Cinemalaya independent film festival (5 of their past 12 submissions) but this year's Cinemalaya has been postponed from August to October, meaning that there is a slightly smaller pool of films. From the past twelve years, five came from major festivals (Cannes, Venice, Sundance), one came from their popular (and more commercial) Metro Manila Film Festival, and one (General Luna) was a regular commercial blockbuster. Before the shortlist came out, I highlighted four films as possibilities - "Gunay Lang, Manong!" and "Sunshine" (both from Cinemalaya 2024), "Green Bones" (Metro Manila) and "Magellan" (Cannes). The Filipino shortlist included "Green Bones", "Magellan" and "Sunshine", plus four dark horses - documentary "Food Delivery", box-office smash sequel "Hello Love Again", LGBT drama "Some Nights I Feel Like Walking" and choir drama "Song of the Fireflies". I don't really expect any of these four to be selected. And although "Green Bones", a crime-thriller about a murderer about to be released from prison, has a Netflix deal, it probably won't have much luck either.
That leaves us with the two favorites- Lav Diaz's big-budget international historical drama "Magellan" and plucky indie "Sunshine", about a pregnant teen gymnast. "Magellan" has international backing, a Cannes label, exemplary production values, and stars Gael Garcia Bernal...all things that will help the Philippines in its quest to make the shortlist for the first time. The Philippines has been sending films since the first call for submissions way back in 1956, when five out of eight submissions got Oscar nominations!) That year, only Philippines, Spain and Sweden failed to get to Hollywood....But by 1960, both Spain and Sweden made the finals courtesy of Juan Antonio Bardem and Ingmar Bergman. Only the Philippines has been waiting so long. That makes "Magellan", which could launch an effective Oscar campaign, the favorite and my prediction. Lav Diaz - whose films usually run four hours or more- has employed a better editor this time. "Magellan" is just 2 hours and 45 minutes (still too long for me).
But "Sunshine" is more "authentically Filipino" and, on paper, probably has better reviews than "Magellan". This story about teen pregnancy and abortion (still strictly illegal in the Philippines) will probably also resonate more with American audiences than the story of a Portuguese missionary and explorer. Unfortunately, because of the AMPAS voting system, "Magellan" probably has the advantage when it comes to making the shortlist.
Ultimately, I don't think either film will be nominated so perhaps the Filipinos should vote with their heart instead of worrying about a nomination.....
For a much more in-depth look at the Filipino race, check out Nicol's blog entry here.
SINGAPORE- “Stranger Eyes” Four of Singapore’s previous
submitted directors – Raihan Halim (2024), Eric Khoo (2005, 2008, 2011, 2015),
Mike Wiluan (2018), and Yeo Siew Hua (2019)- have new movies that appear to be
eligible. On paper, “Spirit World” should be the frontrunner. It was the
Closing Film at Busan, it stars Catherine Deneuve (as a ghost!) and is directed
by Eric Khoo who has been picked to represent Singapore a record four times. But reviews of
the film, in Japanese and French, have not been especially kind. People don't seem to like it. So, I think
Singapore will pick “Stranger Eyes” (Yeo’s film), a weird thriller that premiered
in the Main Competition at Venice, opened the Singapore Film Festival and got
some love at the Asian Film Awards and the Golden Horse Film Festival. Reviews for
the film - which sounds like a Singaporean version of Haneke’s “Cache - have
been okay. In 2nd place, “Pierce” (Karlovy Vary), a murder thriller
centered around competitive fencing. Horror film “Monster Island” (Wiluan’s
film) looks good and already has a US distribution deal but it also seems to have too much
English, and “Ibu” (Halim’s film), a middling horror flick, won’t come into play. Toronto premiere "Amoeba" looks controversial...and probably won't premiere in time.
SRI LANKA- “River Stone” Sri Lanka hasn’t sent a film
since 2009…Excluding Kuwait, it’s the only Asian country that’s been absent for more than a decade. If for some reason they choose to return, it will surely be
“Riverstone” which won two awards at the Shanghai Film Festival, including Best
Screenplay. It’s a baity moral dilemma drama about three army officers who are
sent on a mission to assassinate a man they know nothing about. I hope to welcome them back!
TAIWAN- “Yen & Ai-Lee” Taiwan has quite a few good options although none of them are likely to be mount strong competition at the
Oscars. Taiwan often makes strange choices, preferring to pick a movie that has
the backing of a US distributor like Amazon or Netflix. I don’t know of any
Taiwanese films that have U.S. distribution this year….so I’m predicting unassuming domestic
violence drama “Yen & Ai-Lee” (Busan), about a woman who is released from prison
after an 8-year sentence for killing her father who tried to kill her mother. The
two runner-ups will be “Left-Handed Girl” (Cannes), a family drama about a
single mother (it hasn’t been released in cinemas yet), and “Daughter’s
Daughter” (Toronto 2024), a star vehicle for Sylvia Chang about a bereaved
mother who inherits her daughter’s frozen embryos. Less likely but possible:
Singapore co-production and fencing drama “Pierce” and family drama “Family
Matters”. This is one where I really have no idea. Waiting in the wings is Shu Qi's directorial debut "Girl" which has been selected to compete for the Golden Lion in Venice and also screen in Toronto. This coming-of-age drama looks very strong...but I'm not confident they can get it into Taiwanese cinemas by September 30 (it premieres in Venice on September 4) so I'm sticking with "Yen & Ai-Lee".
TAJIKISTAN- “Fish on the Hook” I’m aware of three
Tajik films that have won awards locally- “In Pursuit of Truth” (Dar taloshi
hakikat), a mystery about a bride who dies on her wedding night...but villagers cannot determine whether she was murdered or committed suicide, “Fish on the Hook” (Mohi dar shast), a road movie
about a boy trying to reunite with his estranged mother, and “Shine” (Furugh),
about a 7-year old deaf girl. Tajikistan returned to the Oscars after a 19-year
absence in 2024 and I’m hopeful they’ll send one of these films. Last year's entry was an Iranian co-production. So “Fish”, which
has both Iranian and Russian partners, looks to be the one.
THAILAND- “A Useful Ghost” Thailand made it to the
shortlist for the first time last year for “How to Make Millions When Grandma
Dies”. I thought it was a lovely movie though I was surprised at how far it went...I've seen better Thai submissions. Before Thailand's preliminary Oscar announcement, I thought that Thailand had three possibilities- “Flat Girls”, a queer
coming-of-age tale, “A Useful Ghost”, a bizarre fantasy-comedy that won Cannes
Critics Week for its story of a possessed vacuum cleaner (!!) and “Morte Cucina”, an
upcoming thriller that reunites Japanese superstar Tadanobu Asano, cinematographer
Christopher Doyle and director Pen-ek Ratanaruang (“Last Life in the Universe”). "Morte Cucina" won't be released in time which was confirmed when the Thai Academy showed the ten movie posters of the films they are considering. There are three horror movies ("Death Whisperer 2", "Halabala" and "Panor"), three comedies ("Nancy Boy", "Red Envelope", "A Useful Ghost"), two dramas ("Flat Girls", "Regretfully at Dawn") and two crime/thrillers ("In Youth We Trust", "The Stone"). I love to see so many horror films on the shortlist but I still think it's between "Flat Girls" and "Useful Ghost". In the end, I think that the Thai
Academy will likely be impressed by “Useful Ghost”’s surprise Cannes win, U.S. distribution deal and berth at Toronto….but they’ll also realize that they finally made
it to the shortlist (after 40 years!) with a sentimental melodrama from the
same studio as “Flat Girls”....but unlike slow-burn box-office "Millions", "Flat Girls" was kind of a flop. For now, let’s say “A Useful Ghost”.
TURKMENISTAN- "Magtymguly Pyragy" Turkmenistan's dictator basically banned local cinema from roughly 1998-2006, which led to the departure of many of the country's Soviet-era talent. They are currently the only former Soviet republic that has never submitted a film to the Oscars. While unlikely, it's possible could seek to enter the Oscar race with "Magtymguly Pyragy", a fancy period biopic that they co-produced with Uzbekistan, about a renowned 17th century Turkmen poet
UZBEKISTAN- “In Pursuit of Spring” The film I
predicted last year for Uzbekistan- “Bahodir Yalangto’sh” ended up winning Best
Picture at the local Uzbek Film Awards so that was a good guess…but Uzbekistan ultimately didn’t submit anything to the Oscars. In fact, the Uzbeks have only sent two films to the Oscars (2019-2021) and they’re unlikely to return this year. They could send “In
Pursuit of Spring”, about a conservative woman on a long journey to a remote
village or “Magtymguly Pyragy” (see Turkmenistan), a big-budget costume drama made in partnership
with neighboring Turkmenistan but by an Uzbek director. Both of these films have represented Uzbekistan at regional film
festivals, in Kyrgyzstan and Kazakhstan. They also have “Three
Heroes”, an action movie that was the biggest local box-office hit of 2024 and which won two small national film awards.
VIETNAM- “Don’t Cry Butterfly” Vietnam joined the
“ten-year club” last year, submitting films ten years in a row. Vietnam
sometimes picks films from major festivals but more often, they choose
commercial films or patriotic films made by the national film studio. From the
festival circuit, they have “Cu Li Never Cries” (Berlinale Panorama), a slow
arty film about a woman and her pet loris (?!) and “Don’t Cry Butterfly”
(Venice Critics Week), a comic fantasy about a woman who uses black magic to woo back
her cheating husband. If they go the “patriotic” film route (like last year),
then it will probably be “Tunnels: Sun in the Dark”, a Vietnam War film made to celebrate 50
years since the 1975 victory of the Vietnamese Communists against South Vietnam and the USA. If they go the commercial route, it could be box-office smash
comedy “The Four Rascals” or period horror-mystery film “The Headless Horror”.
Vietnam has never picked a horror film before but Vietnam has been loosening its unofficial ban on films with “superstitious elements” and produced quite
a few horror movies recently. They also have a new romantic drama "Ky Nam Inn" premiering in Toronto. Of these six possibilities, I think “Don’t Cry Butterfly” has a
good mix of arty and commercial elements and will be the Vietnamese nominee,
followed by “Tunnels” in second place, "Ky Nam Inn" in third (it probably will be eligible next year) and “Four Rascals” (not a critics
favorite, by the way) in fourth.
